peak oil: 2010 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

roachboy · 08-04-2009, 10:04 AM

this is mostly an interview (some rendered as q & a, other parts as indirect) with fatih birol, chief economist at the iea.

Quote:

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.

"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.

In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.

Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.

"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.

"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.

Environmentalists fear that as supplies of conventional oil run out, governments will be forced to exploit even dirtier alternatives, such as the massive reserves of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, which would be immensely damaging to the environment because of the amount of energy needed to recover a barrel of tar-sand oil compared to the energy needed to collect the same amount of crude oil.

"Just because oil is running out faster than we have collectively assumed, does not mean the pressure is off on climate change," said Jeremy Leggett, a former oil-industry consultant and now a green entrepreneur with Solar Century.

"Shell and others want to turn to tar, and extract oil from coal. But these are very carbon-intensive processes, and will deepen the climate problem," Dr Leggett said.

"What we need to do is accelerate the mobilisation of renewables, energy efficiency and alternative transport.

"We have to do this for global warming reasons anyway, but the imminent energy crisis redoubles the imperative," he said.

Oil: An unclear future

*Why is oil so important as an energy source?

Crude oil has been critical for economic development and the smooth functioning of almost every aspect of society. Agriculture and food production is heavily dependent on oil for fuel and fertilisers. In the US, for instance, it takes the direct and indirect use of about six barrels of oil to raise one beef steer. It is the basis of most transport systems. Oil is also crucial to the drugs and chemicals industries and is a strategic asset for the military.

*How are oil reserves estimated?

The amount of oil recoverable is always going to be an assessment subject to the vagaries of economics – which determines the price of the oil and whether it is worth the costs of pumping it out –and technology, which determines how easy it is to discover and recover. Probable reserves have a better than 50 per cent chance of getting oil out. Possible reserves have less than 50 per cent chance.

*Why is there such disagreement over oil reserves?

All numbers tend to be informed estimates. Different experts make different assumptions so it is under- standable that they can come to different conclusions. Some countries see the size of their oilfields as a national security issue and do not want to provide accurate information. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. A further factor is the expected size of future demand for oil.

*What is "peak oil" and when will it be reached?

This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on. The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier "oil crunch" because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

*With global warming, why should we be worried about peak oil?

There are large reserves of non-conventional oil, such as the tar sands of Canada. But this oil is dirty and will produce vast amounts of carbon dioxide which will make a nonsense of any climate change agreement. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. If we are not adequately prepared for peak oil, global warming could become far worse than expected.

Steve Connor, Science Editor

i put one of the more interesting paragraphs in bold because it mentions in passing that this article--and interview--is based on the first comprehensive survey of 800 world oil fields---so rather than trafficking in the usual modelling results, this data and its interpretation pushes closer to the actual situation with global oil reserves and makes some pretty startling claims rooted in new projections based on this information.

peak oil after 2010?

how do you evaluate information like this?
do you think birol is correct in his assessment of the global oil reserves?
where do you get data to back that up, or is assent a matter of aesthetic fit? this is a serious question because it seems to me that if what this article and data behind is says are correct, then a pretty significant priority shift in terms of transportation models, car production, etc. has to be undertaken and probably ought to be underway now.

do you see anything like that happening or underway or even being discussed?

what do you expect the consequences would be were this information to turn out to be accurate?

Baraka_Guru · 08-04-2009, 10:28 AM

Pardon me for not having as much interest in the data itself as you, rb, but I do have an interest in the implications and consequences of it.

It's becoming clear that there is trending resulting from a general concern with oil supply. Look at the increasing production of hybrid autos; the electric car is being rolled out. But this is on the consumer level. Industry and commerce will need to innovate. When it becomes too expensive to ship overseas, what will we do? I foresee new investment and development in alternative sources of transportation energy, namely, electricity and hydrogen. But this means an increased demand for sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear...and possibly coal.

I'm more interested in the innovation of technologies that will make the transition from oil to something else. I don't buy any doom & gloom about the end times. We're too ambitious for that. We're too connected through technology (communications) and economy (globalization) to have us simply fall flat and have our world turn into something out of Mad Max.

As the OP article suggests, this won't happen overnight. Not all of us are blind, either.

roachboy · 08-04-2009, 11:22 AM

well, i'm interested in the data mostly because it's unusual for folk to try to get a sense of what oil reserves might actually as over against relying on projections as to how they should be.
that's the pivot around which all this turns, really: what is the assessment of the situation in terms of global reserves. loosing 20 years of slack that was apparently only ever the result of projections, which were selected from amongst a range of other possible projections for god knows what reason--that's alot of time to have disappear.

i haven't gotten around to tracking down this data yet, nor do i know if it's available on-line. perhaps a little mission for later on.

in general, i agree with you though that it's entirely possible to navigate this scenario in a coherent manner...
the questions i posed about recognition at the state level were not meant to imply an "o no, we're all a-gonna die" viewpoint.
i'm just a bit baffled about how it is that this is not being taken more seriously.
and then i start thinking about data again.
round it goes.

ratbastid · 08-04-2009, 11:31 AM

I think I've got Peak Oil Fatigue. Seems like every few months somebody rolls out a new Energy Apocalypse scenario. I got real interested in it the first couple times, and now I just ignore it.

This is one place I sort of WISH that the nightmare was coming true. If it takes a massive cut in oil production to stimulate alternative energy research, so be it.

That might be a somewhat superficial or impossibly-long view, but I can live with that. I'm too Peak Oil Fatigued to go into the doomsday scenarios about it again.

roachboy · 08-04-2009, 12:06 PM

turns out that the data's not being released as such until november.

another interesting thing inside of this story is that until 3 years ago, the iea was denying there were any real problems of oil supply,
so this represents quite a shift.
but again, what kinda bugs me in this is the data question: if the motor of this shift is different data, then...what were the previous estimates/projections based on?

the obvious question has to do with what constitutes accuracy. sometimes i think accuracy is a rhetoric.

i tried to pitch the thread away from wholesale doom as the only real topic of discussion...maybe keep pushing and something else will turn up.

BigBen · 08-04-2009, 01:27 PM

Peak oil theory scares me, and when I first found out about it, I was intrigued. So I went online, read ad nauseum and found a few things really interesting.

I notice that the theory includes "wild price booms and busts" before the system collapses. Therefore, even if the price starts to normalize, Peak Oil contenders can state "That is predicted". Soooo, ups and downs? You are predicting that the price will go up and down for a while, and then collapse? Can you be a little more specific? Which one will be the final up-and-down?

The thing that carries the most weight for me is the dependency aspect. There is no denying that the global society and the North American society revolves around oil. No fooling. All alternative energy pales in comparison.

If I were to say that I have all of my assets and equity invested in one stock, one simple investment, and I'm hoping that everything will work out in the long run, you would count me as a fool. Yet we have centered our economy, our trade, our transportation, our food supply, our transportation requirements all on one thing. Oil based energy. Are we fools?

Peak Oil theory is pointing out that fact, and it is plain to see. Of course, this conversation quickly devolves into Doomsday scenarios, because of the singularity. Can we diversify in time? Can we become independent of this central commodity?

I don't think so. I think that the canary is long dead, and us miners are so far down the shaft that we can no longer see the cage.

Defeatist? Possibly. Hopeless? Possibly. Accurate theory? Doubtful. Accuracy does not need to be 100% here. A 50% drop would suffice.

Naw, I'm not scared. I guess I am trying to be pragmatic.

2010 seems too soon. Maybe 2020. I think that this theory has a very good foundation, but the polish has worn off.

guy44 · 10-25-2009, 10:06 AM

For fun, I just started googling "peak oil" followed by each year in descending order. 2009, 2008, 2007, etc. Each year popped up people proclaiming THIS IS THE YEAR OF PEAK OIL!

I'm not saying it can't happen. But I'll believe it when I see it.

08-04-2009, 10:28 AM	#2 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru Dracologist Super Moderator Location: Toronto, Canada Blog Entries: 89	Pardon me for not having as much interest in the data itself as you, rb, but I do have an interest in the implications and consequences of it. It's becoming clear that there is trending resulting from a general concern with oil supply. Look at the increasing production of hybrid autos; the electric car is being rolled out. But this is on the consumer level. Industry and commerce will need to innovate. When it becomes too expensive to ship overseas, what will we do? I foresee new investment and development in alternative sources of transportation energy, namely, electricity and hydrogen. But this means an increased demand for sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear...and possibly coal. I'm more interested in the innovation of technologies that will make the transition from oil to something else. I don't buy any doom & gloom about the end times. We're too ambitious for that. We're too connected through technology (communications) and economy (globalization) to have us simply fall flat and have our world turn into something out of Mad Max. As the OP article suggests, this won't happen overnight. Not all of us are blind, either. __________________ Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —"Burnt Norton," Four Quartets, T. S. Eliot

08-04-2009, 11:22 AM	#3 (permalink)
roachboy Moderator Location: essex ma Blog Entries: 396	well, i'm interested in the data mostly because it's unusual for folk to try to get a sense of what oil reserves might actually as over against relying on projections as to how they should be. that's the pivot around which all this turns, really: what is the assessment of the situation in terms of global reserves. loosing 20 years of slack that was apparently only ever the result of projections, which were selected from amongst a range of other possible projections for god knows what reason--that's alot of time to have disappear. i haven't gotten around to tracking down this data yet, nor do i know if it's available on-line. perhaps a little mission for later on. in general, i agree with you though that it's entirely possible to navigate this scenario in a coherent manner... the questions i posed about recognition at the state level were not meant to imply an "o no, we're all a-gonna die" viewpoint. i'm just a bit baffled about how it is that this is not being taken more seriously. and then i start thinking about data again. round it goes. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

08-04-2009, 12:06 PM	#5 (permalink)
roachboy Moderator Location: essex ma Blog Entries: 396	turns out that the data's not being released as such until november. another interesting thing inside of this story is that until 3 years ago, the iea was denying there were any real problems of oil supply, so this represents quite a shift. but again, what kinda bugs me in this is the data question: if the motor of this shift is different data, then...what were the previous estimates/projections based on? the obvious question has to do with what constitutes accuracy. sometimes i think accuracy is a rhetoric. i tried to pitch the thread away from wholesale doom as the only real topic of discussion...maybe keep pushing and something else will turn up. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

08-04-2009, 01:27 PM	#6 (permalink)
BigBen Comedian Location: Use the search button	Peak oil theory scares me, and when I first found out about it, I was intrigued. So I went online, read ad nauseum and found a few things really interesting. I notice that the theory includes "wild price booms and busts" before the system collapses. Therefore, even if the price starts to normalize, Peak Oil contenders can state "That is predicted". Soooo, ups and downs? You are predicting that the price will go up and down for a while, and then collapse? Can you be a little more specific? Which one will be the final up-and-down? The thing that carries the most weight for me is the dependency aspect. There is no denying that the global society and the North American society revolves around oil. No fooling. All alternative energy pales in comparison. If I were to say that I have all of my assets and equity invested in one stock, one simple investment, and I'm hoping that everything will work out in the long run, you would count me as a fool. Yet we have centered our economy, our trade, our transportation, our food supply, our transportation requirements all on one thing. Oil based energy. Are we fools? Peak Oil theory is pointing out that fact, and it is plain to see. Of course, this conversation quickly devolves into Doomsday scenarios, because of the singularity. Can we diversify in time? Can we become independent of this central commodity? I don't think so. I think that the canary is long dead, and us miners are so far down the shaft that we can no longer see the cage. Defeatist? Possibly. Hopeless? Possibly. Accurate theory? Doubtful. Accuracy does not need to be 100% here. A 50% drop would suffice. Naw, I'm not scared. I guess I am trying to be pragmatic. 2010 seems too soon. Maybe 2020. I think that this theory has a very good foundation, but the polish has worn off. __________________ 3.141592654 Hey, if you are impressed with my memorizing pi to 10 digits, you should see the size of my penis.

10-25-2009, 10:06 AM	#7 (permalink)
guy44 Somnabulist Location: corner of No and Where	For fun, I just started googling "peak oil" followed by each year in descending order. 2009, 2008, 2007, etc. Each year popped up people proclaiming THIS IS THE YEAR OF PEAK OIL! I'm not saying it can't happen. But I'll believe it when I see it. __________________ "You have reached Ritual Sacrifice. For goats press one, or say 'goats.'"

08-04-2009, 11:31 AM	#4 (permalink)
ratbastid Darth Papa Location: Yonder Blog Entries: 2	I think I've got Peak Oil Fatigue. Seems like every few months somebody rolls out a new Energy Apocalypse scenario. I got real interested in it the first couple times, and now I just ignore it. This is one place I sort of WISH that the nightmare was coming true. If it takes a massive cut in oil production to stimulate alternative energy research, so be it. That might be a somewhat superficial or impossibly-long view, but I can live with that. I'm too Peak Oil Fatigued to go into the doomsday scenarios about it again.