E.S.P. vs Luck, If There Are Such Things - Tilted Forum Project - TFP - Sexuality, Philosophy and Political Discussion

Sun Tzu · 11-04-2007, 06:23 PM

There has been a debate continuing through the ages whether ESP is a reality. I think there are snake oil salesmen out there, I also believe there are a great many things still undiscovered in human abilities.

I have pretty good grasp of the reasons why some believe in ESP. What I’m curious to find out is those that don’t believe it, if they see any validity in someone having a “hunch”. For someone that subscribes to the belief that currently what you see is what you get, if the see a difference between intuition and ESP. Do they see the people that are not on psychic hotlines, or shows communicating with the dead, but being utilized being police departments for help, or studied in remote viewing as just being merely; lucky?

Ustwo · 11-04-2007, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

I have pretty good grasp of the reasons why some believe in ESP. What I’m curious to find out is those that don’t believe it, if they see any validity in someone having a “hunch”.

I have hunches all the time, sometimes they work sometimes they don't, often they are based on past experiences of similar circumstances.

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For someone that subscribes to the belief that currently what you see is what you get, if the see a difference between intuition and ESP.

Having a feeling and claiming super normal abilities are two very different things. I had a feeling NE would beat the Colts, I was right, it doesn't make it ESP.

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Do they see the people that are not on psychic hotlines, or shows communicating with the dead, but being utilized being police departments for help, or studied in remote viewing as just being merely; lucky?

Neither, I see them as silly, and over hyped as real by the popular press. There is nothing wrong with investigating things like ESP or testing its use, but lets see some real results for one, I'd settle for someone who could have a positive ratio guessing heads or tails, I don't require they solve a crime.

hundove · 11-08-2007, 07:20 PM

I know of someone who has intuition, but it occurs occasionally, but is usually right. I can't call it ESP, but I do believe that some people get a sign that something is wrong before it happens. She told me a few instances which I was also involved in and they really happened.

inBOIL · 11-08-2007, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo

I have hunches all the time, sometimes they work sometimes they don't, often they are based on past experiences of similar circumstances.

This can also happen subconsciously. You can notice things without becoming consciously aware of them, and your mind puts them together, notices a similarity to a past event, and suddenly you get a feeling seemingly out of nowhere.

Ustwo · 11-09-2007, 06:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by inBOIL

This can also happen subconsciously. You can notice things without becoming consciously aware of them, and your mind puts them together, notices a similarity to a past event, and suddenly you get a feeling seemingly out of nowhere.

Like when you and a friend start to hum the same song. Something you saw triggered the same thought.

albania · 11-09-2007, 08:55 PM

I see the human brain as a machine designed for predicting the future: we make plans for ourselves and the ones around us, we think of dangers that could befall us, we imagine things that could be, we plan out interactions, and we do all the things that make us human with the implicit assumption that there’s going to be a future. However, this machine wasn’t built by some mystical process that can’t be in principle understood, it was natural selection. That explains why we jump at shadows, we’re scared by weird noises, and get funny feelings randomly. We forget all the times we were wrong and harp on the ones that were right because our ancestors that had it in their genes to do this survived more often.

I don’t believe in ESP because I have never seen anyone do it repeatedly in a controlled environment. Discounting the charlatans I think everyone else who thinks they have ESP is pretty much covered under the explanation above.

DaveOrion · 11-10-2007, 06:43 AM

One more time, its worth repeating, maybe somebody will read it this time. Stranger things have happened.....

Quote:

Scientists tend to have a skeptical view of ESP and parapsychology. If a person were to turn on the television at two o'clock in the morning they would be bombarded by commercials for various psychic hotlines. A celebrity whose career probably isn't going as well as they would like usually hosts the commercials. They introduce some eccentric person who is a psychic to the stars. I recently heard one of the more popular ones the psychic friends network has gone out of business. I guess the psychics they have working for them didn't pick up on the future financial problems. There seems to be a lot of room for fraud when it comes to ESP. Because of this people are naturally skeptical. Does this mean that ESP and the researchers investigating this phenomenon arrant doing valid research? Surprisingly there is research indicating that there is something to ESP.
When most people think of parapsychologists researching ESP they automatically think of ESP testing cards. J.B Rhine who is some times refereed to the father of parapsychology created these cards. His career in parapsychology began at Duke University in the late 1920s. Rhine became interested in ESP after hearing Sir Arthur Conan Doyle speak about ESP and spiritualism in the early 1920s. He began having children guess numbers that were stamped on cards. Not getting the results he wanted Rhine asked a college Karl Zener a specialist in perception to design a set of cards that could be easily remembered. The cards consisted of 5 symbols the subjects were to guess which symbol was on the card. They ran four separate experiments. The results were 558 hits out of 1,850 trails. Chance would account for 370 hits making the odds 22 billion -to- one. (Broughton, 66-70)

ESP research was taken even further at the Maimonides medical center in Brooklyn New York. The studies at Maimonides took place in the mid 1960s. The experiments mainly focused on ESP and dreams. The mainmonides lab discounted Rhine's card guessing tests and started a new approach. They preferred a more free approach compared with the forced guessing method of the cards. What they did was have one person sleeping and one person mentally send a picture that was sealed in an envelope. The two people would be separated in two different rooms. The dreamer was hooked up to a polygraph machine. When the dreamer reached the REM state indicating the dreamer had started to dream. When the dreamer entered this state a buzzer would sound in the room were the sender was in. The sender would look at a picture and try to send it to the dreaming person. When the REM state stopped the person who was dreaming would be woken up, asked what they were dreaming about, and recorded. This routine would go on through out the time. They would usually get around four dreams. The nightly dreams would then be sealed up and sent to be transcribed. The transcriptions would then be sent to outside judges who would rank the nightly transcripts against the possible target pictures. The judges did not know which picture had been used in the session. They would rank each transcript according to the similarity to picture. The best rank a picture would get would be a one, indicating a direct hit. One example of this is the man doing the dreaming was dreaming of New Mexico, mountains, clouds, and Pueblo Indians going down into a Mayan-Aztec civilization. The target picture was Zapatistas by Carlos Oscar Romero. The picture was of Mexican Indians marching. There are mountains and clouds in the background. The judges labeled this as a striking hit. (Broughton 89-92)

The researchers also modified the format of the dreamer and sender experiments. They wanted to test precognition in dreams or the ability to perceive future events. For this type of experiment they still had the dreamer go to sleep, hooked up to the polygraph would wake them up after the REM state occurred, and recorded their dreams. Then the following morning a person who had no knowledge of the dreams that were recorded would randomly select a picture. A dramatic example of this was a person was dreaming of a hospital and Doctors in white coats. The doctors in his dream called him Mr. Van Gogh. The target picture was Vincent Van Gogh's Hospital Corridor at Saint Remy. The judges labeled this as a direct hit. (Broughton 95-96)

The dream lab closed in 1978 due to lack of funding. Most of the original members had moved on prior to this. Despite a shaky start producing evidence proving ESP exists they did get some significant findings. They did a statistical analysis of the labs results in 1988. The findings were out of 379 trails there were 233 hits. This shows an accuracy rate of 83.5 %. Chance would have been 50%, making the odds against chance about a quarter of a million to one. (Broughton 97-98)

Out of the research at the Mainmonides a new method of investigating ESP came about. This new method came to be known as the Ganzfelt technique. Ganzfelt comes from the German word that means whole field. One of the reasons Ganzfelt came about was because the research at Miamonaides required the staff and subjects to stay up all night it was fairly expensive. A parapsychologist named Charles Honorton was its creator. Honorton wondered if ESP was a weak sense and deduced the reason it was so prevalent in dreams was due to the fact that external stimuli it markedly reduced. When persons dreaming there focused internally. He though about some eastern religions that used meditation who often linked meditation with ESP. He devised a technique that was similar to sensory depravation and meditation. What they did was to tape Ping-Pong balls that were cut in half to person's eyes. The Ping-Pong balls are fitted to the person's eyes so it's not uncomfortable. This is done to reduce the persons visually input. Then the person puts headphones on and listens to a hiss that is played through them. This is designed to reduce the audio input of the subject. A red light is shined on the person's face so with the Ping Pong balls they will see a pink glow. Then the subject sits back in a reclining chair to minimize tactile input. The person is to let their mind go blank, let images and sensations flow, and say what ever comes to mind. A computer randomly selects a picture in another room. The target picture is then sealed in an envelope with three other pictures. After the person is finished describing what they see, the sealed envelope is brought out to them. The subject is to rank each picture on how close it is to what they perceived. Although this changed when Honorton headed Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) at Princeton University's Forrestal Center research campus. At PRL they would have a computer select a target which could be a picture, a film clip, a cartoon, or even a commercial. The sessions would last about a half-hour when they are done the computer turns on a television in the subject's room and shows the person four target pictures. As with the earlier experiments the subjects rates then compared to the images and sensory information they perceived. (Broughton 105-107)

The most recent studies around ESP actually came from interestingly enough the United States government. The United States government became interested in ESP in the early 1960s. An article in a French magazine called Science and Life called "The Secret of the Nautilus" would start a psychic cold war. The article reported that the US government did a secret test that involved using telepathy to communicate with a submarine submerged under an Arctic ice cap. The story turned out not to be true but the soviets took the article very seriously. The soviets began heavily funding research experiments. By the late 1960s the US government saw how much the soviets were spending began looking into researching ESP them selves. This research came to be known as remote viewing. (Schnabel 90-92)

Remote viewing essentially is a scientific term for clairvoyance. It is defined as the ability of experienced or inexperienced to view, by means of mental processes, remote geographical or technical targets such as roads, buildings, and laboratory apparatus. (Targ and Puthoff ix) Put more simply it could be defined as the ability to perceive remote locations while not being there physically. Remote viewing experiments started in early 1970s at Stanford Research Institute. Interestingly enough, the researchers who were doing the experiments weren't parapsychologists they were physicists. The two men responsible for a new direction in the field of parapsychology were Russell Targ and Harold Puthoff.

Harold Puthoff was teaching at Stanford University's electrical engineering department. He received a Ph.D. from Stanford, had a patent on a laser he invented, and co-authored a book called Fundamentals of Quantum Electronics. He was also very bored with his life. He left Stanford University and joined Stanford Research Institute (SRI). He was hired at SRI to work on a laser project for the government. Most of the money SRI received was through government contracts, although it was still related to Stanford University. After the project Puthoff was working on winded down he decided to peruse one of his own interests ESP research. After checking with his boss he began to look for funding. A friend of his named Bill Church who owned a chicken restaurant chain gave him ten thousand dollars. After this remote viewing research was born.(Schnabel 86-87)

Shortly after Puthoff got some funding a man by the name of Ingo Swann contacted him Swann was an artist and also a psychic. He participated in psychic research at City College of New York and American Society for Psychical Research. Swann claimed that he could influence the temperature of a graphite rod and travel out of his body and view objects hidden in a laboratory. Puthoff flew him out to SRI. (Schnabel 87-88)

Two days after Swann arrived at SRI Puthoff did an interesting experiment. He took Ingo to the physics building at Stanford University. Puthoff wanted to see if Swann could influence the output of an experimental magnetometer. This magnetometer was designed to measure very small magnetic field perturbations. Swann had never tried any thing like this before and said he would try clairvoyantly to see inside the magnetometer. As he did this, the magnetometer input suddenly changed as indicated by the printed read out of the meter. Convinced he had found something significant Puthoff wrote up a small report with the output reading of the magnetometer and sent it to a few government offices. A few weeks later the government let Puthoff know they were interested. The government agency that ended up funding the research at SRI began with the CIA. After seeing an experiment where Swann correctly described the contents of a box the CIA was funding ESP research. The target in the box was a moth. (Schnabel 86-89)

Remote viewing essentially is a scientific term for clairvoyance. It is defined as the ability of experienced or inexperienced to view, by means of mental processes, remote geographical or technical targets such as roads, buildings, and laboratory apparatus. (Targ and Puthoff ix) Put more simply it could be defined as the ability to perceive remote locations while not being there physically. Remote viewing experiments started in early 1970s at Stanford Research Institute. Interestingly enough, the researchers who were doing the experiments weren't parapsychologists they were physicists. The two men responsible for a new direction in the field of parapsychology were Russell Targ and Harold Puthoff.

Harold Puthoff was teaching at Stanford University's electrical engineering department. He received a Ph.D. from Stanford, had a patent on a laser he invented, and co-authored a book called Fundamentals of Quantum Electronics. He was also very bored with his life. He left Stanford University and joined Stanford Research Institute (SRI). He was hired at SRI to work on a laser project for the government. Most of the money SRI received was through government contracts, although it was still related to Stanford University. After the project Puthoff was working on winded down he decided to peruse one of his own interests ESP research. After checking with his boss he began to look for funding. A friend of his named Bill Church who owned a chicken restaurant chain gave him ten thousand dollars. After this remote viewing research was born.(Schnabel 86-87)

Shortly after Puthoff got some funding a man by the name of Ingo Swann contacted him Swann was an artist and also a psychic. He participated in psychic research at City College of New York and American Society for Psychical Research. Swann claimed that he could influence the temperature of a graphite rod and travel out of his body and view objects hidden in a laboratory. Puthoff flew him out to SRI. (Schnabel 87-88)

Two days after Swann arrived at SRI Puthoff did an interesting experiment. He took Ingo to the physics building at Stanford University. Puthoff wanted to see if Swann could influence the output of an experimental magnetometer. This magnetometer was designed to measure very small magnetic field perturbations. Swann had never tried any thing like this before and said he would try clairvoyantly to see inside the magnetometer. As he did this, the magnetometer input suddenly changed as indicated by the printed read out of the meter. Convinced he had found something significant Puthoff wrote up a small report with the output reading of the magnetometer and sent it to a few government offices. A few weeks later the government let Puthoff know they were interested. The government agency that ended up funding the research at SRI began with the CIA. After seeing an experiment where Swann correctly described the contents of a box the CIA was funding ESP research. The target in the box was a moth. (Schnabel 86-89)

Remote viewing first happened as sort of an accident. Shortly after getting the CIA contract Puthoff hired a man named Russell Targ. Like Puthoff Targ was also a laser physicist. Targ created an ESP training machine. The machine consisted of a computer that had light bulbs behind four slides. The computer would randomly light up a slide and the subject using this was to guess which slide would light up. Ingo Swann didn't like this machine. It reminded him of the earlier forced choice work in parapsychology. One day Swann suggested that Puthoff and Targ give him geological coordinates and he would describe what he saw. Puthoff and Targ didn't like this mainly because if Swann did get accurate information skeptics would ague that he had a photographic memory. Ingo would not let this go after threatening to quit Puthoff and Targ finally gave in. After trying this a few times they decided to do some more research in this area after Swann successfully described the coordinates. (Schnabel 98-104) This procedure evolved into the remote viewer or psychic and a monitor in a sound proofed room that was shielded from electromagnetic waves. The monitor's job is to ask questions and talk to and the remote viewer. Neither of them have any idea what the target location is. Then one or two people in another room with roll a die and pick up a manila envelope correlating with the number that was rolled on the die. They would open the envelope and a location is in side it. The people them go to the location for about a half-hour and then come back. The people that do this are called out-bounders. (McMoneagle 44-45)

A dramatic example of remote viewing ability is a man named Pat Price. Pat Price was a police commissioner, vice mayor of Burbank Ca, and was the president of a coal company. Pat called Puthoff and told him that he used his psychic abilities to solve crimes when he was on the police force. (Targ and Puthoff 46) Puttoff got many calls like this a day but on a whim or perhaps intuition he gave Price the coordinates that a friend who was in the military gave him. Price sent Puthoff a five-page report going in to great detail about the place. Price said it was a military installation and even read the names of files that were on a desk and in locked cabinets. Puthoff's friend told him the coordinates were of his college's summer cabin and that price was wrong. A week later Puthoff's friend took his family for a drive in the countryside. A few miles away from his college's cabin was a dirt road and a sign that said government property no tress passing. The following Monday Puthoffs friend asked some one about the base and passed on all the information that Pat Price had perceived. With in a few days military officials were interrogating Puthoffs friend. They wanted to know how he got into the base and why. Not buying his explanation Targ and Puthoff were interrogated too. The military official also knocked on neighbor's doors asking if they were communists. It turns out that Price was correct after all. (Schnabel 108-112)

SRI's ten million military contract was terminated in 1989. The research at SRI produced some exciting results. A statistical analysis showed that of all the research done at SRI. It was based on 154 experiments, consisting of over 26,000 separate trials, conducted over 16 years. The statistical analysis came out to be a billion to one against chance. Although some people suggest the early research methods at SRI had some flaws. (Radin 101)

The current research with ESP has also shown significant results. Particularly the research of a man named Dean Radin. He has been called the Einstein of parapsychology. Radin is director of the conscious research Lab at the University of Arizona. One interesting experiment that was done had a subject sit in a chair about two feet from a color computer monitor. On the persons first two fingers of the left had electrodes are attached to record fluctuations in the skin conductance. On the third finger of the left hand a device is attached to record the heart rate and the amount of blood in the fingertips. The signals from these are then fed into a computer. The subject then rests their left hand on their lap. With their right hand they hold a computer mouse when there ready to begin the subject presses the mouse button. Then the computer selects one target image out of a large group of different images. When this is being done the monitor only shows a blank screen. The images that the computer chooses fall into two categories, calm and emotional. Calm pictures usually consist of nature scenery, cheery people, or a relaxing situation. Emotional pictures are disturbing images such as an autopsy. After five seconds of the blank screen the target photo is shown for three seconds. A blank screen then follows this again for five seconds. After another five-second-rest period the subject is told to press the mouse button and the sequence repeats using a different target image. The subject's physiological responses to the three sequences are measured. The person view forty different pictures one at a time in a single sitting. The study had some fascinating findings, for instance before seeing a calm picture the subjects heart rate would increase a little then it would steadily drop. It was as if the subject knew the picture was going to be relaxing. In comparison too this before the person saw a disturbing picture the participants pre-acted to their own future emotional stress. They also found that the electrodermal activity was much higher before the emotional picture than before the calm pictures. It is important to note that most of the people were not consciously aware what kind of picture was going to come up. This indicates that this phenomenon is a largely unconscious process. (Radin 118-124)

There is now solid evidence that ESP is very much real. If this is the case, we must change the way we think about reality. Most scientists today believe that ESP is impossible because it violates certain natural laws such as time and space. There is however a theory that explains this: the field consciousness theory. This theory has been around for years in which Carl Jung called it the collective unconscious and it has also been referred to as global mind. The basic premise of the field consciousness theory is that mind and matter are radically interconnected. At the Consciousness Research Laboratory, they ran several experiments to test the prediction that mass consciousness can affect matter. One was where they programmed one or more electronic random number generators to generate 400 random bits (zeros and ones) every six seconds (each group of 400 bits is a sample). Essentially it is similar to flipping a coin 400 times and recording heads or tails that resulted. They wanted to take an event that had a large number of people watching or participating. One of these events picked was the 1995 Academy Awards (over one billion people in 120 countries watched this event). They independently kept minute by minute logs of programs and judged whether they thought each noted event was interesting and likely to attract attention of the viewing audience. They also noted if it was uninteresting and likely to bore the audience (Radin, 160-170). The findings of this study were significant. The devices showed that an increase in order over base line measurements occurred (Graff, 204).

Despite almost 30 years of solid research with significant statistical data, the debate over ESP is still on going. Part of the problem is with "main stream" sciences belief systems. The belief system acts as a filter to what people will or will not accept. It is similar to not being able to find an object you are looking for that is right in front of your face. They will not validate ESP research simply because they do not believe in it. Scientific discoveries usually go in three stages: the first being disbelief and conflict Laws of Science; the second being admitting there is weak evidence therefore it is unimportant; and the final stage is acceptance where the main stream accepts that there is credible evidence. ESP research is now in stage two. Science has now admitted that there is weak evidence that supports the ESP phenomena. This however, is not true: ESP has been proven over and over beyond a reasonable doubt. Statistical analysis has proven that there is concrete evidence that ESP does in fact exist. Just because mainstream scientists will not validate it, does not make the evidence less credible or make the scientists correct. As in the 1400s there was a consensus with scientists that the world was flat and anyone who did not subscribe to this theory was ridiculed much like today with ESP research. As scientists slowly realized that this school of thought was false and that the world is in fact round. One day scientists will realize the validity of ESP research.

http://www.viewzone.com/ESP1.html

albania · 11-10-2007, 04:31 PM

I wrote I have never seen it done repeatedly in a controlled environment. That’s pretty much the only way I would believe ESP was true at this moment and time, if I could see it with my own eyes under stringent conditions.

Now in regards to what you’ve quoted above, I’ll admit I’ve only read about the first half of it. The questions that come to mind are as follows: Where was this research published? Was it published? (The cited sources from your link list 4 or 5 books, and no scholarly articles). There is some mention of methods, but not nearly enough imo. How did they select the people for the tests? What were the people subject to the tests told exactly? There are a myriad of other questions I could come up with, but it all rests on this. Any experiment is about more than quoting the results. The method, especially in something that is nonstandard or controversial, should garner specific attention. Something that in my opinion isn’t outlined to satisfactory degree. Perhaps it is elsewhere.

The article seems also to throw statistics and percentages with no clear explanation as how they got those results. Mathematics can give some pretty non intuitive figures to how likely an event really is. Take for example this math puzzle(reworded by me for this discussion, you can skip it if you like, it sums up to: crazy shit can be explained logically):

In a far away land live a group a people called the espers, they purport to have magical abilities related to clairvoyance and the like. An unscrupulous scientist decides to put their ability to the ultimate test. He rounds up 100 of them at a time numbering them as he does so. Also, they are allowed to talk among themselves in the group. Then he lines up 100 boxes and in each box he puts a piece of paper with the number 1 to 100 (the method with which he does this is up to his liking). Then one by one each of the 100 espers is lead into the room with the boxes. An esper has at most 50 tries to find a box with his number in it, making sure to put the papers back in the box after he’s done. If he doesn’t find his number within 50 tries he is killed otherwise let go. The same holds for the rest of the espers. So in groups of 100 the espers are forced to perform the devilish experiment. In the end the scientist finds that about 1/3 of the time all 100 espers survive. Is there any explanation other than some natural clairvoyant ability of these people?

The answer is yes, the mathematics is complicated enough that very few people would appreciate it (and it would be non trivial for me to recreate). However, there is a strategy that allows for all in a group of 100 to survive about 1/3 of the time. I’m trying to show that there are unexpected and very non-intuitive results that do not require explanations outside mathematics. Regrettably, this is the best example I could come up with. I’m sorry I’ve not given you a detailed proof of the result, but I hope you’ll trust me enough to believe my assertion. The article states that statistics predict x(insert random percentage) but perhaps the people performing the experiments were not clever enough mathematicians to figure out the correct predictions. It all depends on what they did which isn’t outlined clearly enough.

Finally, this business of mainstream science not accepting the “solid” research outlined in the article. I’m a physics guy, so let me relate to you what a professor I respect once told our class. In physics when you publish something that is wrong usually no one ever publishes a paper stating outright that you’re wrong. Instead, all that happens is that what you wrote never gets referenced in other papers and it quietly goes away into obscurity. Though I’m not as familiar with other fields I assume that generally the same thing happens elsewhere. So if scientists are dismissing something as exciting as what’s outlined in the article there are two likely explanations: One it’s not as exciting as is made out to be. That is were getting an incomplete picture of what actually went on. The other possibility is that something similar to what I outlined above(with respect to a wrong physics paper) is happening. In either case my conclusion is that what you’ve posted is not at all a satisfactory proof that such a thing as ESP exists.

forgotten_dream · 11-11-2007, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albania

I wrote I have never seen it done repeatedly in a controlled environment. That’s pretty much the only way I would believe ESP was true at this moment and time, if I could see it with my own eyes under stringent conditions.

And it seems like that's the biggest problem with "supernatural" research right there. If a scientist does this testing and says they've discovered a new chemical, or new rule governing physics, it would be properly studied by other scientists. But with ESP, people wind up just righting it off more often than not. Not that I'm saying that you should just take their word for it, but but it through the neccesary tests because that's how science works, NOT because it goes against your current belief system.

Ustwo · 11-11-2007, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Most scientists today believe that ESP is impossible because it violates certain natural laws such as time and space.

Martian · 11-11-2007, 11:05 AM

I do not take any article that cites the SRI studies as credible sources seriously. They were performed by a private institute, were not peer reviewed and had a vested interest in returning positive results, since their funding was dependent on it. Unsurprisingly, when independent inquiries were made, their testing methods were found to be flawed and biased. Hence why the CIA pulled funding.

Seriously. SRI is not a credible source. Show me a peer-reviewed study from a reputable institution and I may concede you have a case.

DaveOrion · 11-11-2007, 11:08 AM

As always, if you don't agree with the evidence presented its flawed & biased. The political threads often employ the same methodology.

Martian · 11-11-2007, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveMatrix

As always, if you don't agree with the evidence presented its flawed & biased. The political threads often employ the same methodology.

No, you've got it backward. It's not that the evidence is flawed and biased because I don't agree with it. It's that I don't agree with it because of the flaws. Their results were independently reviewed and serious faults in the testing method cast the significance of the studies into doubt. That, combined with the fact that nobody has been able to replicate their results independently, pretty much debunks the SRI studies.

But really, don't take my word for it. I have sources!

Miss Mango · 11-11-2007, 12:45 PM

Sometimes my feelings are based on patterns that my subconscience compiles. Other times, unexplained images and sounds or phrases come to me unannounced and unprovoked.

I dont know what it is. I dont analyze what it is, or even if its a what or a who.

I just listen and acknowlege, because often it is valuable information or insight.

I think its important to stay in a receptive frame of mind, regardless of reality or perception.

Or.
Or.
Or.

MSD · 11-16-2007, 10:18 PM

I used to believe in ESP, now I'm very skeptical to the idea. Sure, there are a lot of things that seem supernatural, but there are logical explanations even if we don't always see them. I really wanted to believe in psychic abilities, mostly because I wanted to be one of those special people who could do it. I still have books around on "Developing your ESP powers," but I've recognized that I don't have some sort of sixth sense. What I have is an uncanny ability to notice tiny things that most people ignore, and quickly process the potential effects of these things.

In the end, none of it stands up to scientific scrutiny. Even if we weren't able to observe the mechanisms by which results are produced, believers claim that ESP is an observable phenomenon, and no correlation has been found between claims of psychic abilities and actual results, even with large cash prizes offered for positive results under controlled conditions. Logically, the only conclusions I can draw are that tests yielding positive results were flawed, and that ESP does not exist.

twistedmosaic · 11-16-2007, 11:18 PM

I believe that people may believe they have ESP, but I think what is really happening is that they are making guesses based on information that may not be obvious. The brain is complicated enough to detect patterns and give you feelings about conclusions without you consciously knowing why.

Miss Mango · 11-17-2007, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrSelfDestruct

I used to believe in ESP, now Im very skeptical to the idea. Sure, there are a lot of things that seem supernatural, but there are logical explanations even if we dont always see them. I really wanted to believe in psychic abilities, mostly because I wanted to be one of those special people who could do it. I still have books around on Developing your ESP powers, but Ive recognized that I dont have some sort of sixth sense. What I have is an uncanny ability to notice tiny things that most people ignore, and quickly process the potential effects of these things.

In the end, none of it stands up to scientific scrutiny. Even if we werent able to observe the mechanisms by which results are produced, believers claim that ESP is an observable phenomenon, and no correlation has been found between claims of psychic abilities and actual results, even with large cash prizes offered for positive results under controlled conditions. Logically, the only conclusions I can draw are that tests yielding positive results were flawed, and that ESP does not exist.

Yeah yeah yeah.

But where is it written that the world, the universe, etc., all must be explicable by logic, science, or even....at all?

Further, why does it need to be? Just for us? To give us meaning? As if were the most important things ever, in all of existence in the perception of some great maker? Because in my opinion, were probably not.

Even the most dedicated scientists and geniuses in all of humanity were people of faith - and knew that aside from logic and explanation, there were going to be things that defied all of that.

Im all for proving paranormal phenomenon. I really am. But Im also all for allowing the extraordinary to occur without immediately thinking its bogus.

Martian · 11-18-2007, 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Mango

But where is it written that the world, the universe, etc., all must be explicable by logic, science, or even....at all?

This is exactly what science and logic are all about.

Science is not a fixed edifice that never changes. It was, once upon a time, considered that the Earth was the center of the Universe, and that all illness was caused by an imbalance of humours. As we've discovered more about how the Universe around us works, we've adapted our scientific models. Understanding begets new theories, begets better understanding. It's a constant cycle to describe the workings of the world around us to the best of our abilities.

Frankly, I don't think anybody is even particularly concerned about the scientific explanation for paranormal phenomena such as ESP at this point. For now, evidence of their existence would suffice. And the point is that despite years of of research (and discounting one unreliable study for reasons cited above) nobody's been able to come up with anything to even suggest that this sort of thing actually occurs.

I'm very receptive to new ideas. If you can demonstrate a new concept for me, I'll learn everything I can about it. Indeed, I have learned a fair bit about ESP. One of the things I've learned is that it is a refuge of frauds and con artists, and that there is no solid evidence anywhere that such abilities actually exist. It's a powerful fantasy and subject to the Barnum effect, but if one can disassociate that desire and view the matter some objectivity, it becomes much harder to put any stock in such claims.

If someone can conclusively demonstrate to me or a source I trust in a controlled environment that such abilities do actually exist, I'll eat my crow like it's caviar. Until then, I maintain that it's all lies and scams.

Sun Tzu · 11-18-2007, 07:48 AM

11-04-2007, 06:23 PM	#1 (permalink)
Sun Tzu Conspiracy Realist Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The Event Horizon	E.S.P. vs Luck, If There Are Such Things There has been a debate continuing through the ages whether ESP is a reality. I think there are snake oil salesmen out there, I also believe there are a great many things still undiscovered in human abilities. I have pretty good grasp of the reasons why some believe in ESP. What I’m curious to find out is those that don’t believe it, if they see any validity in someone having a “hunch”. For someone that subscribes to the belief that currently what you see is what you get, if the see a difference between intuition and ESP. Do they see the people that are not on psychic hotlines, or shows communicating with the dead, but being utilized being police departments for help, or studied in remote viewing as just being merely; lucky? __________________ *None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. -Johann Wolfgang Goethe*

11-11-2007, 11:05 AM	#11 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Canada	I do not take any article that cites the SRI studies as credible sources seriously. They were performed by a private institute, were not peer reviewed and had a vested interest in returning positive results, since their funding was dependent on it. Unsurprisingly, when independent inquiries were made, their testing methods were found to be flawed and biased. Hence why the CIA pulled funding. Seriously. SRI is not a credible source. Show me a peer-reviewed study from a reputable institution and I may concede you have a case. __________________ Some will win, some will lose Some were born to sing the blues Oh, the movie never ends It goes on and on and on and on - Journey, Don't Stop Believein'

11-11-2007, 11:08 AM	#12 (permalink)
DaveOrion Junkie Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Somewhere Out There	As always, if you don't agree with the evidence presented its flawed & biased. The political threads often employ the same methodology. __________________ The world cares very little about what you know; it is what you are able to do that really matters.

11-16-2007, 11:18 PM	#16 (permalink)
twistedmosaic Inane Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Wunderland	I believe that people may believe they have ESP, but I think what is really happening is that they are making guesses based on information that may not be obvious. The brain is complicated enough to detect patterns and give you feelings about conclusions without you consciously knowing why. __________________ ☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻ ☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻ ☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻ ☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻☻

11-08-2007, 07:20 PM	#3 (permalink)
hundove Crazy Join Date: Jan 2006	I know of someone who has intuition, but it occurs occasionally, but is usually right. I can't call it ESP, but I do believe that some people get a sign that something is wrong before it happens. She told me a few instances which I was also involved in and they really happened.

11-09-2007, 08:55 PM	#6 (permalink)
albania Psycho Join Date: Oct 2005	I see the human brain as a machine designed for predicting the future: we make plans for ourselves and the ones around us, we think of dangers that could befall us, we imagine things that could be, we plan out interactions, and we do all the things that make us human with the implicit assumption that there’s going to be a future. However, this machine wasn’t built by some mystical process that can’t be in principle understood, it was natural selection. That explains why we jump at shadows, we’re scared by weird noises, and get funny feelings randomly. We forget all the times we were wrong and harp on the ones that were right because our ancestors that had it in their genes to do this survived more often. I don’t believe in ESP because I have never seen anyone do it repeatedly in a controlled environment. Discounting the charlatans I think everyone else who thinks they have ESP is pretty much covered under the explanation above.

11-10-2007, 04:31 PM	#8 (permalink)
albania Psycho Join Date: Oct 2005	I wrote I have never seen it done repeatedly in a controlled environment. That’s pretty much the only way I would believe ESP was true at this moment and time, if I could see it with my own eyes under stringent conditions. Now in regards to what you’ve quoted above, I’ll admit I’ve only read about the first half of it. The questions that come to mind are as follows: Where was this research published? Was it published? (The cited sources from your link list 4 or 5 books, and no scholarly articles). There is some mention of methods, but not nearly enough imo. How did they select the people for the tests? What were the people subject to the tests told exactly? There are a myriad of other questions I could come up with, but it all rests on this. Any experiment is about more than quoting the results. The method, especially in something that is nonstandard or controversial, should garner specific attention. Something that in my opinion isn’t outlined to satisfactory degree. Perhaps it is elsewhere. The article seems also to throw statistics and percentages with no clear explanation as how they got those results. Mathematics can give some pretty non intuitive figures to how likely an event really is. Take for example this math puzzle(reworded by me for this discussion, you can skip it if you like, it sums up to: crazy shit can be explained logically): In a far away land live a group a people called the espers, they purport to have magical abilities related to clairvoyance and the like. An unscrupulous scientist decides to put their ability to the ultimate test. He rounds up 100 of them at a time numbering them as he does so. Also, they are allowed to talk among themselves in the group. Then he lines up 100 boxes and in each box he puts a piece of paper with the number 1 to 100 (the method with which he does this is up to his liking). Then one by one each of the 100 espers is lead into the room with the boxes. An esper has at most 50 tries to find a box with his number in it, making sure to put the papers back in the box after he’s done. If he doesn’t find his number within 50 tries he is killed otherwise let go. The same holds for the rest of the espers. So in groups of 100 the espers are forced to perform the devilish experiment. In the end the scientist finds that about 1/3 of the time all 100 espers survive. Is there any explanation other than some natural clairvoyant ability of these people? The answer is yes, the mathematics is complicated enough that very few people would appreciate it (and it would be non trivial for me to recreate). However, there is a strategy that allows for all in a group of 100 to survive about 1/3 of the time. I’m trying to show that there are unexpected and very non-intuitive results that do not require explanations outside mathematics. Regrettably, this is the best example I could come up with. I’m sorry I’ve not given you a detailed proof of the result, but I hope you’ll trust me enough to believe my assertion. The article states that statistics predict x(insert random percentage) but perhaps the people performing the experiments were not clever enough mathematicians to figure out the correct predictions. It all depends on what they did which isn’t outlined clearly enough. Finally, this business of mainstream science not accepting the “solid” research outlined in the article. I’m a physics guy, so let me relate to you what a professor I respect once told our class. In physics when you publish something that is wrong usually no one ever publishes a paper stating outright that you’re wrong. Instead, all that happens is that what you wrote never gets referenced in other papers and it quietly goes away into obscurity. Though I’m not as familiar with other fields I assume that generally the same thing happens elsewhere. So if scientists are dismissing something as exciting as what’s outlined in the article there are two likely explanations: One it’s not as exciting as is made out to be. That is were getting an incomplete picture of what actually went on. The other possibility is that something similar to what I outlined above(with respect to a wrong physics paper) is happening. In either case my conclusion is that what you’ve posted is not at all a satisfactory proof that such a thing as ESP exists.

11-11-2007, 12:45 PM	#14 (permalink)
Miss Mango Psycho Join Date: Nov 2006	Sometimes my feelings are based on patterns that my subconscience compiles. Other times, unexplained images and sounds or phrases come to me unannounced and unprovoked. I dont know what it is. I dont analyze what it is, or even if its a what or a who. I just listen and acknowlege, because often it is valuable information or insight. I think its important to stay in a receptive frame of mind, regardless of reality or perception. Or. Or. Or.

11-16-2007, 10:18 PM	#15 (permalink)
MSD Super Moderator Super Moderator Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: CT	I used to believe in ESP, now I'm very skeptical to the idea. Sure, there are a lot of things that seem supernatural, but there are logical explanations even if we don't always see them. I really wanted to believe in psychic abilities, mostly because I wanted to be one of those special people who could do it. I still have books around on "Developing your ESP powers," but I've recognized that I don't have some sort of sixth sense. What I have is an uncanny ability to notice tiny things that most people ignore, and quickly process the potential effects of these things. In the end, none of it stands up to scientific scrutiny. Even if we weren't able to observe the mechanisms by which results are produced, believers claim that ESP is an observable phenomenon, and no correlation has been found between claims of psychic abilities and actual results, even with large cash prizes offered for positive results under controlled conditions. Logically, the only conclusions I can draw are that tests yielding positive results were flawed, and that ESP does not exist.

11-18-2007, 07:48 AM	#19 (permalink)
Sun Tzu Conspiracy Realist Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The Event Horizon